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Published: February 16, 2026

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Portfolio item number 2

Published: February 16, 2026

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publications

Assessing the Health of Costa Rica’s Elderly Population

Published in None, 2022

This coursework studies the health of the elderly population in Costa Rica, a nation with an increasingly aging demographic. A critical component of this examination is the robustness of Costa Rican health services.

The Transmission of Monetary Policy in Costa Rica, 2011-2022

Published in None, 2023

Abstract This work seeks to address the question of how changes in the monetary policy rate in Costa Rica were transmitted to the price level and economic activity during the period 2011-2022. Thus, unlike previous studies, this research includes a new period during which a series of monetary policy modernizations took place, such as the adoption of the Monetary Policy Rate and the transition to more flexible exchange rate regimes. To answer the question, an analysis of autoregressive vectors (VAR) with a transmission channels model was carried out. It is found that the policy rate has a significant effect on the price level observed in the economy but not on economic activity, which would support the view of money neutrality. Additionally, evidence is found that the Central Bank’s contractionary policy actions serve to raise inflation expectations, which could reflect that individuals perceive the bank’s interventions as a signal of higher future inflation. Finally, the direct effect of some transmission channels, such as the exchange rate, on inflation and output is briefly discussed.

Inflation Regimes in Latin America: Persistence and Dynamics

Published in None, 2023

Inflation shifts are in the spotlight in Latin America. This paper employs a Hidden Markov Model to uncover and test the persistence of inflationary regimes in six Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Mexico. It also uses an influence method based on the Mahalanobis distance to measure how a series of economic factors affect the path of inflation throughout the 2020-2022 period. Subsequently, I elaborate on a comparative dynamics analysis. The results show that monetary and international factors are the most important for the region and that the determinants of inflation are het- erogeneous between countries. Specifically, US inflation shifts are crucial in defining the path of inflation in Latin American countries, representing the most relevant factor in Argentina. In addition, the study finds that Costa Rica is mainly affected by policy-related interest rates; demand-pull factors are central in Chile and Mexico, and cost-push elements strongly drive shifts in Brazil and Colombia. Inflation determinants are also time-varying and generally influence in different ways in consecutive periods. Finally, almost all countries display regime persistence, except for Argentina.

A Variational Bayesian Approach of Inflation Regimes in Emerging Markets

Published in None, 2024

This study employs and tests a novel framework to uncover inflation regimes, their dynamics and persistence, and the inflation drivers across nine Latin American countries throughout the 2008-2023 period. A Multivariate Gaussian Hidden Markov Model (MGHMM) with variational Bayesian inference is used to achieve this. The study further employs a Mahalanobis distance-based measure to examine the influence of various drivers on inflation regimes, categorized as monetary policy, international factors, demand-pull factors, expectations, and cost-push factors. The findings reveal that monetary policy instruments significantly impact inflation, especially during economic disruptions. International factors, including international inflation and exchange rates, are also prominent drivers, particularly in Chile, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, and Peru. Private expenditure emerges as the strongest demand-pull factor, with its influence amplified during the pandemic. Finally, inflation expectations and producer prices consistently influence inflation across all the countries examined.

talks

IV Costa Rica Economists Conference

Published: December 17, 2024

About EconCR24 On December 17, 2024, the IV Costa Rica Economists Conference took place at the University of Costa Rica (UCR). Featured speakers included Marcela Eslava (Universidad de Los Andes) on business development in Latin America and Pascual Restrepo (Yale University) on automation and inequality.

Gabriel Sánchez H.