Gabriel Sánchez H.

Gabriel Sánchez H.

Economist and Researcher

Research

A Variational Bayesian Approach of Inflation Regimes in Emerging Markets

Published in None, 2024

This study employs and tests a novel framework to uncover inflation regimes, their dynamics and persistence, and the inflation drivers across nine Latin American countries throughout the 2008-2023 period. A Multivariate Gaussian Hidden Markov Model (MGHMM) with variational Bayesian inference is used to achieve this. The study further employs a Mahalanobis distance-based measure to examine the influence of various drivers on inflation regimes, categorized as monetary policy, international factors, demand-pull factors, expectations, and cost-push factors. The findings reveal that monetary policy instruments significantly impact inflation, especially during economic disruptions. International factors, including international inflation and exchange rates, are also prominent drivers, particularly in Chile, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, and Peru. Private expenditure emerges as the strongest demand-pull factor, with its influence amplified during the pandemic. Finally, inflation expectations and producer prices consistently influence inflation across all the countries examined.

Inflation Regimes in Latin America: Persistence and Dynamics

Published in None, 2023

Inflation shifts are in the spotlight in Latin America. This paper employs a Hidden Markov Model to uncover and test the persistence of inflationary regimes in six Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Mexico. It also uses an influence method based on the Mahalanobis distance to measure how a series of economic factors affect the path of inflation throughout the 2020-2022 period. Subsequently, I elaborate on a comparative dynamics analysis. The results show that monetary and international factors are the most important for the region and that the determinants of inflation are het- erogeneous between countries. Specifically, US inflation shifts are crucial in defining the path of inflation in Latin American countries, representing the most relevant factor in Argentina. In addition, the study finds that Costa Rica is mainly affected by policy-related interest rates; demand-pull factors are central in Chile and Mexico, and cost-push elements strongly drive shifts in Brazil and Colombia. Inflation determinants are also time-varying and generally influence in different ways in consecutive periods. Finally, almost all countries display regime persistence, except for Argentina.

Monetary Policy in Costa Rica: Effects and Transmision

Published in None, 2023

Abstract Este trabajo busca abordar la pregunta de ¿en qué manera se transmitieron cambios en la tasa de política monetaria en Costa Rica hacia el nivel de precios y la actividad económica durante el periodo 2011-2022? Así, a diferencia de estudios previos, esta investigación contempla un nuevo periodo en el cual se llevaron a cabo una serie de modernizaciones de la política monetaria, como la adopción de la Tasa de Política y la migración hacia regímenes de mayor flexibilidad cambiaria. Para responder la pregunta se llevó a cabo un análisis de vectores autorregresivos con un modelo de canales de transmisión. A su vez, se encuentra que la tasa de política tiene un efecto significativo sobre el nivel de precios observado en la economía pero no en la actividad económica, lo cual apoyaría la visión de neutralidad del dinero. Además, se encuentra evidencia de que las acciones de política contractivas del Banco sirven para incrementar las expectativas de inflación, lo cual podría reflejar que los individuos toman las intervenciones de la entidad como una señal de inflación elevada a futuro. Por último, se discute brevemente el efecto directo de algunos canales de transmisión, como el tipo de cambio, sobre la inflación y el producto.

Assessing the Health of Costa Rica’s Elderly Population

Published in None, 2022

This coursework studies the health of the elderly population in Costa Rica, a nation with an increasingly aging demographic. A critical component of this examination is the robustness of Costa Rican health services.